Saturday, April 16, 2011

FOREX-Euro hits 15-mo high vs dollar; yen, Swiss franc up


* China committed to buying Spanish debt, boosts euro

* Yen, Swiss franc big gainers as well in risk-off market

* Japan nuclear situation deteriorates (Recasts, adds quote, updates prices, changes dateline; previous LONDON and byline)

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, April 12 (Reuters) - The euro rose to a fresh 15-month high against the dollar above $1.45 on Tuesday, boosted by reported buying from China and news the world's second largest economy was willing to purchase more Spanish debt.

The euro's break above $1.45 was a bullish signal, which could open a test of $1.4550 and $1.4580. Both levels are said to be lined with option barriers.

"The euro is being supported by expectations of higher interest rates and news that China has reiterated its commitment to buy European debt," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist, at Scotia Capital Markets in Toronto.

"That China news helped drive Spanish yields lower and was positive for the euro."

WORLD FOREX:Dollar Up Vs Yen As Japan Funds


TOKYO (Dow Jones)--The dollar rose against the yen in Asia Wednesday as Japanese pension funds and importers bought the U.S. unit amid a lull in the flow of negative news about Japan's stricken nuclear power plant.

Japanese investors snapped up the U.S. currency after it fell in the morning session to Y83.50, close to its 200-day moving average, said Tomohiro Nishida, a senior dealer at Chuo Mitsui Trust ...

For the China news, click on [ID:nB9E7EN01X].

Spanish 10-year yields have fallen to 5.18 percent on Tuesday from a recent high of 5.55 percent on March 10.

The yen and Swiss franc were the two other big movers of the day, rising after Japan's nuclear situation worsened and Alcoa missed revenue estimates, prompting investors to sell risky assets funded by the two low-yielding currencies.

Gains in both the yen and Swiss franc, were likely to be short-lived as demand for so-called carry trades financed by those two units may pick up again should the situation in Japan improve.

The yen rose for a fourth straight session, partly retracing 10 consecutive days of losses versus the U.S. dollar. The Swiss franc also advanced for a fourth straight day.

The initial sell-off in risk was prompted by Japan's Nuclear Safety Agency raising the severity rating of the Fukushima accident to level 7 -- the highest classification and the same as the world's worst nuclear disaster at Chernobyl in 1986. [ID:nL3E7FB2TZ].

WORLD FOREX: Yen Surges On Renewed Quake, Nuclear Concerns

TOKYO (MarketWatch) -- The yen surged against the euro and the dollar in Asia Tuesday, as overseas investors scrambled to unwind positions in the higher-yielding single currency to lock in profits, buying back the Japanese currency as concerns resurfaced about the troubled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant and further earthquakes.

"Overseas investors stopped taking risks," while purchase of the yen in the cross also pushed the dollar/yen rate down," said Yuji Saito, foreign exchange market director at Credit Agricole in Tokyo.

At 0450 GMT, the euro was at Y120.85 from Y122.15 late in New York on Monday, according to EBS via CQG. It fell as low as Y120.16 in morning trade. The dollar was at Y83.90 from Y84.61. Its low was Y83.46. The single currency was at $1.4408 from $1.4437.

Japan on Tuesday raised the crisis level of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident to 7, the worst on the international scale and the same level as the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in the Soviet Union. Hidehiko Nishiyama, an official with the nuclear safety agency, said Fukushima was less serious than Chernobyl, pointing out that the amount of radiation released from Fukushima thus far was about a tenth that from Chernobyl.

But an official at plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Co. (9501.TO) didn't rule out the possibility that as radiation was still being released, the amount could eventually match or exceed that from Chernobyl.

Earlier Tuesday, two earthquakes shook Japan but there were no immediate reports of damage or injuries. The levels of magnitude were smaller than recent aftershocks that have struck since the devastating March 11 quake.

The Japan Meteorological Agency said the first quake hit the Fukushima area at 8:06 a.m. (2306 GMT) with a magnitude of 4.0. The location was the same area devastated by the 9.0 magnitude March 11 quake, which caused the ongoing nuclear power plant crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi plant.

"The currency market had shrugged off various risk factors and investors had strengthened risk appetite over the past weeks," said Keiji Matsumoto, currency strategist at Nikko Cordial Securities. But such moves lost steam, he added.

The dollar had risen against the yen until the end of last week on hopes for an end to U.S. credit easing due to a slew of hawkish remarks from Fed officials. But Matsumoto said "the view that the Fed won't raise interest rates within this year is becoming a consensus among many people," even if the Fed is slated to end its $600-billion bond purchase program in June.

Still, Credit Agricole's Saito said he was keeping a close eye on remarks by Fed officials and U.S. economic indicators due this week to find a cue for the timing of the end of U.S. crediting easing and a possible interest rate hike by the Fed. The ICE Dollar Index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against a trade-weighted basket of currencies, was at 75.129 against 75.031.

world forex trader

As any forex trader will tell you, staying on top of your finances is crucial to turning in a profit. But quite often this doesn’t happen and many traders will, at some point in time, find themselves in debt. Sometimes getting in debt is the result of circumstances beyond our control such as losing a job… but often it is as a result of being over-ambitious with forex trading or chasing a loss. Sometimes it is because we have not properly understood the long term implications of trading beyond our means; or enjoying a lifestyle that really we can’t afford.

But what ever the reason we have for finding that we owe too many people or organisations more money than we can find a way to repay, please understand that you are not alone. There are a great many people who are in precisely the same situation as you and thankfully there are people whom you can approach who will help you find your way through the nightmare of debt that currently you are enduring.

In order to take control of your debts you need to find a way of managing them. So where do you go for debt management help?

Debt managers’ day job is managing debt, so it makes sense that they are they people to whom you should talk.

Yes, it is difficult to pick up that phone and talk to a stranger about your current situation of which you might feel ashamed. Even when people find themselves in debt due to matters entirely out of their control, events such as losing a job, the most common emotion is one of shame and embarrassment.

Being in unaffordable debt is extremely painful. At least nowadays you do not get arrested and carted off to some hell hole of a dungeon, though emotionally it can feel like that. All you need to do in order to get some debt management help is pick up the phone and speak to a specialist

WORLD FOREX: Euro Struggles As Traders Reassess Debt Risk

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The euro struggled Friday as traders reassessed the euro zone's simmering debt problems, after all but ignoring this risk for months.

The previously buoyant currency may be at a crossroads, with coming weeks revealing whether the recent meteoric rise based on the currency's favorable yield differential is sustainable. Moody's Investors Service downgraded Ireland's government debt by two notches Friday and kept its outlook negative on the troubled sovereign.

"That kind of started the drive lower for the euro," said Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

For now, traders remain unsure how ...

Sunday, April 10, 2011

What type of trader are you? The Anatomy of a Forex Trader.

            "If foreign exchange is the "wild west" of trading, then forex traders are the cowboys. Forex traders are typically comfortable with a high degree of risk, lots of sleepless nights, caffeine, and constantly-blinking computer screens - but what other substantive qualities do they have in common?"

           I think this is a very interesting look at our community. This also tells me that most forex traders are not necessarily interested in other markets and are rather focused which puts me in a quandary regarding much of what I teach and encourage traders to do regarding my Forex Market Pulse futures contracts. Is it important? I believe it is. But is the message being heard? Perhaps not.

           What's another great stat here is just how many traders are home-based! The mobile trading lifestyle and the tools that allow it (iPhones, netbooks, iPads, etc.) are even more important and it drives home one idea I have always believed: Trading is as much about the lifestyle and freedom as it is about making a living!

             Another important stat is regarding education. And with BabyPips leading the charge with not only the best course - but the best free forex educational course online, there is all the more reason to see this 54% increase. Forums and Blogs account for 38% and 33% respectively and explains why BabyPips is such a popular destination for the new and experience forex trader. Our attitude here is not only entertaining but fun-loving but the information is all business.

Getting into the Japanese Yen Selloff - Trade Closed

       Good morning! We saw USD/JPY spike lower after another earthquake hit Japan yesterday morning. The pair dropped enough to trigger my long trade and then we saw the market rally back higher within the same hour. As the weekend was quickly coming to a close, I decided to close my trade to avoid weekend risk.

Closed manually at 85.25

Total: +55 pips/ +0.61% gain

So, a nice and quick swing trade for the week. The pair is dipping lower as we approach the end of the European trading session, so that'll be it for me this week. But I will keep a watch on USD/JPY and if it breaks higher next week, or finds support in the same area, look out for me to jump in this bad boy long again. Until then, thanks for checking out my blog and have a great weekend!

Trade Idea: 2011-04-06 3:42 ET

The Japanese Yen has been getting beat like as rented mule on sentiment it'll be the last to exit out of stimulus. With divergence signals indicating a pullback may be around the corner, will there be another chance to jump in the trend?

  

The Candy Man Can...

Quotable

Who can take a sunrise
Sprinkle it in dew
Cover it in chocolate
and a miracle or two?

The candyman
The candyman can
The candyman can cause he mixes it with love and makes the world taste good


Commentary & Analysis
The Candy Man Can...

As you likely know, the euro spiked (is still spiking) to a fresh intermediate-term high today, as the dollar is generally being whacked across the board--but there have been worse days for Mr. Greenie--many of them in fact. The euro is the lead dog today and getting all the press. It's acting quite well in the wake of Mr. Trichet's press conference yesterday after announcing a 25 basis point rate hike as you can see in the chart below:

EURUSD Dailyd made a decision which was likely extremely politically unpalatable. A sign of strength it is perceived; though the not so dirty little reality is the ECB is the central bank for Germany, just as the eurozone is the captive market for Germany. In case you have forgotten, one size fits all in the zone!

Now contrast this to the central banker role being played by Mr. Bernanke on this side of the pond. Ben wants to be everybody's best friend. Heck, he even makes an appearance on the 60-minutes television show to prove to those who have never starred into a Reuters or Bloomberg screen, but don't need to know their houses are unsellable, that yes, he truly is the Candy Man (and remember that remark I made awhile back, about there not being a housing bubble in the US, well, I was only trying to help you). We all know the Candy Man can!

The Candy Man can make risk asset dreams come true. With the right dose of sugar he can turn a barbaric relic into gold and make real wealth and purchasing power vanish in a blink of an eye....

Gold vs. US Dollar Index Weekly:



 


 

The Dodd-Act Law and Its Possible Effects on Forex

           In July 21, 2010, President Barack Obama signed the "Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act" into law in response to the widespread clamor for changes in the financial system. It was a historic event as it called for extensive reforms not seen since the Great Depression.

According to the act, its main goal is:

        To promote financial stability of the United States by improving accountability and transparency in the financial system, to end "too big to fail," to protect the American taxpayer by ending bailouts, to protect consumers from abusive financial services practices, and for other purposes.

         In response, financial institutions are preparing for the worst. They're doing all that they can so that the way they operate things will be in accordance to the new rules. So over the next year or two, don't be surprised when you see some game-altering changes in the Forex market as well.

       I won't scare you and say that the CFTC will go all Steve Jobs-strict on retail Forex trading. However, I have to warn you that there are a few suggested rules that may ruffle your feathers.

        The act is primarily aimed at regulating over-the-counter derivatives such as forwards, futures, and options. In order to do this, lawmakers have proposed to set up clearing houses to promote transparency and ensure that trade transactions run smooth. A downside to this is that it will most probably mean that banks will have to spend extra for these middlemen. Consequently, additional expenses may be passed on to consumers and translate to retail traders paying higher spreads!

         Another proposal that I have mentioned in the past is the idea that leverage should be capped to 50:1 for the major currency pairs and 20:1 for non-majors. What this means is that you will not be able to take advantage of 200:1 or 100:1 leverage limits, which could hinder your potential profitability.

         On top of that, hotshots at the U.S. Congress also think that brokers should have capital requirements. This may cause some brokers to close or merge with other under-funded brokers. If your account happens to be under one of those brokers, you may have to go through the tedious process of signing paperwork, making sure you can withdraw funds, or worse, having to switch to a new broker.

        The most important question to ask though is, will these changes be good or not for the Forex market?

          The most glaring and obvious effect are the restrictions it will place on Forex traders. As we point out in the School of Pipsology, high liquidity, high leverage, and relatively looser regulation are part of the many reasons why traders choose to dive into the Forex markets. While the suggested restrictions are aimed to "protect consumers from themselves," it severely hampers those who actually know what they're doing and can handle the fast pace and know how to properly take advantage of high leverage available in the Forex market.

             On the other hand, we have to take into account the bigger picture here. More regulation leads to a more transparent industry, which is good for newbies and the uninformed. We don't want people getting scammed and talking smack about our beloved Forex community now, do we?

        Lastly, the new rules are being implemented in hopes that they will lessen the chance of a financial crisis later down the road. There will always be people who are greedy and who will try to find loopholes to "beat" the system, but with tighter regulations in place, the damage that their actions may cause on the financial markets as a whole will be limited.