I read a great piece by HSBC Chief Economist guru Stephen King that appeared in the Financial Times this morning, "Trigger-happy central bankers risk wrecking the recovery," *Note: We often consider things great when they are aligned with one's own world view; which is the case here; as I too think developed world central banks have gotten ahead of themselves.]
Here are some excerpts that I think make great sense:
Standard economic upswings end with inflation. This one is beginning with inflation.
Here are some excerpts that I think make great sense:
Standard economic upswings end with inflation. This one is beginning with inflation.
- Central banks typically raise interest rates to prevent inflation from picking up. They’re now thinking of raising interest rates to bring inflation down.
- Higher interest rates are associated with rapid economic growth. Yet the west’s economic recovery so far has been arthritic, at best.
- There are few, if any, domestic inflationary drivers.
- Wage growth is modest.
- Money supply growth is insipid.
- On any conventional measure, there’s plenty of spare capacity.
- The emerging nations’ success has, in turn, imposed a tax on western economies.
- This “tax” is being paid via an increase in prices relative to wages. Hawkish central bankers would rather the tax be paid via higher interest rates.
- Yet, raising rates may simply squeeze western demand without chocking off “eastern” inflation.
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