Saturday, March 5, 2011

Are inflation expectations ahead of themselves?

I read a great piece by HSBC Chief Economist guru Stephen King that appeared in the Financial Times this morning, "Trigger-happy central bankers risk wrecking the recovery," *Note: We often consider things great when they are aligned with one's own world view; which is the case here; as I too think developed world central banks have gotten ahead of themselves.]
Here are some excerpts that I think make great sense:
 Standard economic upswings end with inflation. This one is beginning with inflation.
  • Central banks typically raise interest rates to prevent inflation from picking up. They’re now thinking of raising interest rates to bring inflation down.
  • Higher interest rates are associated with rapid economic growth. Yet the west’s economic recovery so far has been arthritic, at best.
  • There are few, if any, domestic inflationary drivers.
  • Wage growth is modest.
  • Money supply growth is insipid.
  • On any conventional measure, there’s plenty of spare capacity.
  • The emerging nations’ success has, in turn, imposed a tax on western economies.
  • This “tax” is being paid via an increase in prices relative to wages. Hawkish central bankers would rather the tax be paid via higher interest rates.
  • Yet, raising rates may simply squeeze western demand without chocking off “eastern” inflation.

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