Will the EUR/USD Double Top Reverse the Longer-Term Intraday Trend?
The EUR/USD has traveled to the upper limits of the current range as the euro continues to benefit from hawkish expectations of a future rate hike. The strong data out of Europe has propelled the euro past the sinking dollar and pushed prices to 1.3854 and a second consecutive session of a rally to the 1.3850 major psychological level. There is a double top on the daily chart at the recent highs at 1.3861 and 1.3856.There is also a double top that can be seen on the intraday time frames. The 240-minute chart however is the most interesting at the moment since the trend is still up on this time frame as opposed to the downtrends on the 15 and 30-minute charts and the sideways congestion of the 60-minute.
The 240-minute chart has formed a Rising Wedge which is no surprise since the trend as of the February 14 bounce from 1.3426 has been up. The break of the uptrend line support of the pattern indicates a near-term weakness which could be partially the daily chart double top creating selling pressure on the pair as prices could not attract buyers above 1.3800. The question is now whether the 240-minute move lower is merely a correction or a reversal. The pattern breakdown could be seen as an aggressive reversal entry however the area between 20 period simple moving average and 34 period exponential moving average could offer a cushion of buying support. This area overlaps with the Forecast area (shaded gray) on the chart which is between 1.3719 and 1.3650.
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